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Hoax and Hindsight

Past Futures · Prediction ledger

Albert Robida’s Novel vs. 1956: Strict 3/9, Lenient 6/9

Hoax and Hindsight Published

December 1955 has come and gone, so Albert Robida’s novel La Vie électrique, set in that month, can be checked. Read as a forecast for 1955 and 1956, the years the story covers, and split into 27 items, it scores 3 of 9 by the strict count and 6 of 9 counting the three partial hits, with 18 items not scorable; the book’s jokes are set aside, not scored.

Docket

Case
La Vie électrique, the illustrated novel by Albert Robida
Years
1890s → 1955–1956 (the book's setting)
Place
Paris, where the book was published; the story is set in France and Switzerland
The claim
27 features of life in 1955–1956 that the book presents as fact
The verdict
Hindsight score: strict 3/9, lenient 6/9; 18 not scorable; judged 2026-11-06
Hinges on
Which passages count as forecasts and which as jokes, and which items a source read here can settle
Status
Expired

Docket as CSVWhere these entries come from (JSON)Data: Albert Robida, La Vie électrique, and the sources named in each row

Robida wrote and drew the book, and the Librairie illustrée in Paris published it as Le Vingtième Siècle: La Vie électrique (Exhibit A). The title page carries no date, and the Getty Research Institute copy is catalogued as 1893. The story opens on the afternoon of December 12, 1955, and runs into army manoeuvres the following August. Robida died at Neuilly-sur-Seine on October 11, 1926, according to the authority record of the national library of France (Exhibit H).

The book is satire, so this page scores only what it presents as plain fact about its own present. The deadline, the end of 1956, is this site’s reading of a story that ends in that year, not a date Robida gave.

The grades follow the Hindsight score rules, the same rules used for the 1900 Ladies’ Home Journal forecast and Halley’s comet forecast. A book printed in the 1890s cannot have been shaped by the 1950s, and a dated printing sets that kind of latest possible date. The sources are cited as Exhibits under the site’s retrial method.

Order of proceedings 5 parts
The 27 items of La Vie électrique and their grades One mark per item, in item order: 1 Weather made to order: miss; 2 Picture telephone: miss; 3 Air cabs, private aircraft: not scorable; 4 Mountain beacons: not scorable; 5 Women engineers: not scorable; 6 Lessons by screen: not scorable; 7 Shopping by screen: not scorable; 8 Spoken news at home: partial; 9 Scheduled air lines: partial; 10 Shows on a home screen: partial; 11 Passenger tube trains: not scorable; 12 Push-button houses: not scorable; 13 Women in parliament: not scorable; 14 Women vote, stand for office: hit; 15 Those rights for 30+ years: miss; 16 Engagement trips: not scorable; 17 Nervous exhaustion: not scorable; 18 Park closed to industry: not scorable; 19 Air forces in war: hit; 20 Poison gas in war: hit; 21 Smoke screens: not scorable; 22 Paper and artificial stone: not scorable; 23 Moving pictures for paint: not scorable; 24 Meals by pipe: not scorable; 25 Germ warfare: not scorable; 26 Rivers without fish: not scorable; 27 Recordings of past stars: not scorable. Strict 3/9 (33%) Lenient 6/9 (67%) 18 not scorable. 1 Weather made to order 2 Picture telephone 3 Air cabs, private aircraft 4 Mountain beacons 5 Women engineers 6 Lessons by screen 7 Shopping by screen 8 Spoken news at home 9 Scheduled air lines 10 Shows on a home screen 11 Passenger tube trains 12 Push-button houses 13 Women in parliament 14 Women vote, stand for office 15 Those rights for 30+ years 16 Engagement trips 17 Nervous exhaustion 18 Park closed to industry 19 Air forces in war 20 Poison gas in war 21 Smoke screens 22 Paper and artificial stone 23 Moving pictures for paint 24 Meals by pipe 25 Germ warfare 26 Rivers without fish 27 Recordings of past stars hit partial miss not scorable Strict 3/9 (33%) Lenient 6/9 (67%) 18 not scorable

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"The 27 items of La Vie électrique and their grades" by Hoax and Hindsight, licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Original: https://hoaxandhindsight.com/past-futures/albert-robida/

Data: Albert Robida, La Vie électrique (Exhibit A), and the sources named in each row of the item table

All 27 items in list order, with the grade of each. Drawn from the item table published with this page; claims from Robida (Exhibit A), grades from the sources named in each row.

How was the book split into items?

An item is a technology, a public service, or a social or political arrangement that the narrator presents as an ordinary part of France or Europe in December 1955 and 1956. The items come from the features named in the chapter summaries of the book’s own table of contents, and from the ways of travelling and talking at a distance shown in use in the first three chapters. A further item was added when a passage stated a separate fact that could be checked, such as how long women had held the vote.

Jokes are set aside. Electric storms that escape from power reservoirs and kill people on the telephone, a parliamentary party for men, and a compulsory national medicine are played for laughs, so they are not scored as misses. Plot events, invented people and firms, and things already in use when the book appeared, such as the telephone and the phonograph, are left out too. The list of 27 items was fixed on November 6, 2026, before any item was graded.

The split rules and the passages set aside, with reasons (CSV) (where the data comes from) Data: Albert Robida, La Vie électrique, and the sources named in each row

Illustration: an imagined electric city at dusk, small winged air cabs flying above lit windows and a rooftop terrace

Illustration: Hoax and Hindsight. Generated schematic illustration — not a photograph or historical record. © Hoax and Hindsight, all rights reserved.

An illustration of an imagined scene, not a plate from the book: an electric city of December 1955 as a novel of the 1890s pictured it, with air cabs over the rooftops. Robida’s own drawings are not shown on this page.

The ledger

Each item was checked against records from the mid-1950s or later accounts of that period. A United Nations statistical yearbook for 1956 (Exhibit G) and a United Nations yearbook on human rights for 1946 (Exhibit B) settle most of the scorable items. Single sources settle the rest: an engineering journal on video telephones (Exhibit C), a government survey of weather control (Exhibit D) and an account of war inventions from 1918 (Exhibit E).

Grades of the 27 items Bar chart: hit 3, partial 3, miss 3, not scorable 18. Strict 3/9 (33%) Lenient 6/9 (67%) 18 not scorable. hit 3 partial 3 miss 3 not scorable 18 Strict 3/9 (33%) Lenient 6/9 (67%) 18 not scorable Rates are counted over the scorable items only.

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"Grades of the 27 items" by Hoax and Hindsight, licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Original: https://hoaxandhindsight.com/past-futures/albert-robida/

Data: Albert Robida, La Vie électrique (Exhibit A), and the sources named in each row of the item table

Grade counts for the 27 items, with the strict and lenient rates over the 9 scorable items. Drawn from the item table published with this page.

ItemClaimGradeSource
1Weather made to ordermissExhibit D
2Picture telephone at homemissExhibit C
3Air cabs and private aircraftnot scorablenone read
4Mountain beacons for aircraftnot scorablenone read
5Women engineersnot scorablenone read
6Lessons by screen at homenot scorablenone read
7Shopping by screennot scorablenone read
8Spoken news at homepartialExhibit G, Table 185
9Scheduled passenger air linespartialExhibit G, Table 143
10Shows on a home screenpartialExhibit G, Tables 1 and 187
11Passenger trains in tubesnot scorablenone read
12Push-button housesnot scorablenone read
13Women in parliament and cabinetnot scorableExhibit B
14Women vote and stand for officehitExhibit B
15Those rights for over thirty yearsmissExhibit B
16Trial engagement tripsnot scorablenone read
17Nervous exhaustionnot scorablenone read
18A national park closed to industrynot scorablenone read
19Air forces in warhitExhibit E, ch. XXIV
20Poison gas in warhitExhibit E, ch. I
21Smoke screensnot scorablenone read
22Paper and artificial-stone buildingsnot scorablenone read
23Moving pictures in place of paintingnot scorablenone read
24Meals by pipe, homes without kitchensnot scorablenone read
25Germ warfarenot scorablenone read
26Rivers too polluted for fishnot scorablenone read
27Recordings of past performersnot scorablenone read

The 27 items, with deadlines, tests, grades, reasons and sources (CSV) (where the data comes from) Data: Albert Robida, La Vie électrique, and the sources named in each row

By the strict count, 3 of the 9 scorable items are hits, or 33%. The lenient count adds the three partial hits: 6 of 9 hold up, or 67%. Items 8 and 9 were first graded hits and were regraded on November 6, 2026; their earlier grades stay in the previous_grade column of the download.

Eighteen items are left out of both counts. Several of them, such as air cabs, passenger tubes and meals sent by pipe, look as if they would fail, but no source read for this page measures them, so the two rates describe nine items and not the whole book.

What came true?

The three hits concern war and the vote. In the army manoeuvres of 1956, air forces mobilise beside land and undersea forces, and chemical troops carry asphyxiating gas. Both had arrived by 1918: Corbin describes aeroplanes scouting, fighting and bombing, and a German attack with chlorine gas on Canadian troops (Exhibit E). The book’s women vote and sit in elected office, and French women gained the right to vote and to stand for election by an ordinance of April 21, 1944 (Exhibit B, p. 112).

Three items count only as partial hits. Over the book’s Paris, express air lines arrive from the provinces and abroad, and a giant airliner comes in from South America. In 1955 scheduled airlines outside mainland China and the USSR flew about 61.1 billion passenger-kilometres on domestic and international services (Exhibit G, Table 143). The scheduled lines came true, but that table does not show how often they linked Europe’s cities or whether airliners arrived from other continents.

Radio sets and television licences per 1,000 people, mid-1950s Two bars. Radio receivers in use, Europe outside the USSR, 1955: 190 per 1,000 people (UNESCO estimate). Television licences, France, April 1956: about 7.3 per 1,000 people (314,000 licences over the 1954 census count of 42,843,520). 0 50 100 150 200 190 Radio receivers in use Europe outside the USSR, 1955 about 7.3 Television licences France, April 1956 per 1,000 people

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"Radio sets and television licences per 1,000 people, mid-1950s" by Hoax and Hindsight, licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Original: https://hoaxandhindsight.com/past-futures/albert-robida/

Data: United Nations, Statistical Yearbook 1956, Tables 1, 185 and 187

Radio sets in use in Europe outside the USSR in 1955 (a UNESCO estimate), against television licences in France in April 1956, each per 1,000 people; the licences are set against the 1954 census population. Drawn from the UN Statistical Yearbook 1956 (Exhibit G), Tables 1, 185 and 187.

Robida’s Telejournal reads the news aloud at breakfast. By a UNESCO estimate, about 78 million radio sets were in use in Europe outside the USSR in 1955, 190 for every 1,000 people (Exhibit G, Table 185). That table counts sets, not news programmes. The receiver at home came true; no source read for this page shows the news part.

Television is the third. Plays, concerts and news pictures do reach screens at home in the book, and even a modest civil servant’s family in the Alps has one. France had issued 314,000 television licences by April 1956, about 7 for every 1,000 people at the 1954 census count of 42,843,520 (Exhibit G, Tables 1 and 187). Broadcast pictures came true; the screen in every home did not.

What missed, and what can’t be scored?

The picture telephone missed. Two-way video calls were shown between two New York buildings in 1930, but the Bell System’s own account says practical service depended on technology developed mainly in the 1960s (Exhibit C). Weather control missed as well. A survey written after a federal advisory committee reported in December 1957 found that seeding clouds could add a little local rain, and concluded: “In general, the present known capabilities for controlling the weather are quite modest.” (Exhibit D, first page)

Dates behind the misses, 1883 to 1971 Timeline: 1883 Le Vingtième Siècle (the earlier book); 1893 La Vie électrique (catalogued date); 1930 Two-way video (shown in New York); 1944 Women gain the vote (ordinance of April 21); 1955 Story opens (December 12, 1955); 1956 Deadline read here (end of 1956); 1957 Weather control (committee reports); 1971 Video telephone (service described). 1883 Le Vingtième Siècle the earlier book 1893 La Vie électrique catalogued date 1930 Two-way video shown in New York 1944 Women gain the vote ordinance of April 21 1955 Story opens December 12, 1955 1956 Deadline read here end of 1956 1957 Weather control committee reports 1971 Video telephone service described

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"Dates behind the misses, 1883 to 1971" by Hoax and Hindsight, licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Original: https://hoaxandhindsight.com/past-futures/albert-robida/

Data: Robida, La Vie électrique; Yearbook on Human Rights for 1946; The Bell System Technical Journal (1971); CIA, Survey of Weather Modification; Houghton Library date for Le Vingtième Siècle (1883)

Dates behind the misses, 1883 to 1971, with the story’s own years marked. Drawn from Exhibits A to D and H; the 1893 date is the catalogue date of the Getty Research Institute copy.

The third miss comes from the book’s own detail. Its women hold office as “électrice, éligible, ayant les mêmes droits politiques et sociaux que l’homme depuis plus de trente ans” (“voters and eligible for office, with the same political and social rights as men for more than thirty years”, translated by Hoax and Hindsight; Exhibit A, pt. 2, ch. II, p. 136).

That would date the rights to before about 1925. In France they dated from 1944, and the laws of the Third Republic had not given women equal political rights (Exhibit B, p. 112).

Eighteen items could not be scored. Two are too loosely worded to test: nervous exhaustion across a whole population, and moving pictures taking the place of painting. For the other 16, among them air cabs, tube trains, shopping by screen and a national park closed to industry, no source read for this page settles the test. They are left out of both rates rather than counted as misses.

Why did the 1890s fear the pace of electric life?

One item can be read as a dated fear. In the book, the hurried electric life of the title has worn people out, and each summer crowds of the exhausted flee to the Brittany park, where machines are banned (Exhibit A, pt. 1, ch. VI; pt. 2, ch. II and VIII).

The same fear was in print within a few years of the book. Max Nordau’s Degeneration first appeared in English in London in February 1895. It blamed railways, letters and newspapers for the strain and wrote: “All these activities, however, even the simplest, involve an effort of the nervous system and a wearing of tissue.” (Exhibit F, Book I, ch. IV)

Illustration: a tired man sits with a hand to his brow under electric lamps, letters on his desk, city lights at night

Illustration: Hoax and Hindsight. Generated schematic illustration — not a photograph or historical record. © Hoax and Hindsight, all rights reserved.

An illustration of an imagined scene, not a plate from the book: the weariness of electric life as the 1890s feared it, a man worn out under bare lamps among letters and papers.

Because the book and a source from its own years both show this fear, item 17 fits the time-stamped wish. The item itself stays unscored, since the book names no measure by which exhaustion across a nation could be checked. For the other items, no period source on their hopes or fears was read for this page, so they are scored and nothing more is read into them.

What would overturn it:

  • A dated first printing or publisher’s record that puts the book or its setting in another year, which would change the deadline and the date behind the forecasts.
  • A record from 1955 or 1956 that settles one of the 16 items left unscored for want of a source, such as a count of private aircraft in France or a list of the country’s national parks.

Exhibits

Records and period publications

  1. Exhibit A: Albert Robida, Le Vingtième Siècle: La Vie électrique, text and drawings by the author (Paris: Librairie illustrée, n.d.; the Getty Research Institute copy is catalogued as 1893). gutenberg.org · Read: full text
  2. Exhibit B: United Nations, Yearbook on Human Rights for 1946 (Lake Success, 1947), France: Constitution of 27 October 1946, preamble, p. 105; 'Fundamental Rights in France since the Liberation', p. 112. archive.org · Read: full text of the France section
  3. Exhibit C: Jack A. Baird, “Foreword,” in “The Picturephone System,” The Bell System Technical Journal 50, no. 2 (February 1971): 219–220. archive.org · Read: full text
  4. Exhibit D: Central Intelligence Agency, “Survey of Weather Modification” (undated; it cites the Final Report of the Advisory Committee on Weather Control of December 31, 1957), document CIA-RDP78-03425A002100020023-2, released 2013. archive.org · Read: full text
  5. Exhibit E: Thomas W. Corbin, The Romance of War Inventions (London: Seeley, Service, 1918). gutenberg.org · Read: full text of the passages cited
  6. Exhibit F: Max Nordau, Degeneration, translated from the second edition of the German work (London: William Heinemann, first English edition February 1895; popular edition 1898), Book I, ch. IV. gutenberg.org · Read: full text of the passage cited

Databases and data sets

  1. Exhibit G: United Nations, Statistical Office, Statistical Yearbook 1956 (New York, 1956), Tables 1, 143, 185 and 187. archive.org · Read: the tables cited
  2. Exhibit H: Bibliothèque nationale de France, authority record “Albert Robida (1848-1926)”, data.bnf.fr, ark:/12148/cb12169844v (metadata under the Licence Ouverte; retrieved 2026-11-06). data.bnf.fr · Read: full record

Cite this page

Hoax and Hindsight. “Albert Robida’s Novel vs. 1956: Strict 3/9, Lenient 6/9.” Hoax and Hindsight, published November 6, 2026. https://hoaxandhindsight.com/past-futures/albert-robida/. Accessed [the date you read it].